Reports about Pope Francis’ possible death have triggered a massive shift in the Polymarket new pope 2025 prediction market. Within hours, the “Yes” tokens in the market titled New Pope in 2025? surged from $0.35 to a full dollar, signaling complete certainty among bettors that a new pontiff will be chosen this year.
The sudden spike in Polymarket new pope 2025 trading volume brought total bets to over $2 million, according to the platform. Crypto users rushed to speculate on the timing and identity of the next pope, following news that Francis had been hospitalized with severe pneumonia.
How Polymarket Prediction Markets Work
Polymarket, the leading crypto betting market, allows users to wager on real-world events using blockchain-based “Yes” or “No” tokens. The token price reflects the estimated probability of an outcome. For example, a “Yes” token priced at $0.20 implies a 20% chance of the event occurring.
Tokens pay $1 if the predicted outcome happens; otherwise, they become worthless. In this case, if a new pope is officially announced before the end of 2025, “Yes” tokens win — as determined by the Vatican or a consensus of global news outlets.
New Betting Pools: Candidates and Regions
Following Francis’ hospitalization on February 14, Polymarket launched the New Pope in 2025 market on February 20. By February 25, two more pools were added:
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Next pope prediction by individual candidates
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Region of origin for the future pontiff
The frontrunner in the candidate pool is Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, a prominent figure from the Philippines. Other notable names include:
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Pietro Parolin, Vatican Secretary of State
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Peter Erdő of Hungary
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Peter Turkson, a Ghanaian cardinal with strong global support
As the Catholic Church prepares for a potential papal conclave, the traditional process for selecting a new pope could begin soon. This process involves daily voting rounds until a two-thirds majority is reached. It typically lasts 15 to 20 days.
Where Will the New Pope Come From?
The Luis Antonio Tagle pope speculation also plays into geographic bets. In the “Continent of Origin” market, Europe currently leads with a 56% probability, while Asia stands at 31%. This suggests strong support for a pope from the Global South, including Africa and Asia.
If Tagle is elected, he would become the first Asian pope in history — a development seen as symbolic of the church’s evolving global identity. Despite growing interest in non-European candidates, the latest consensus leans toward Europe once again.
Conclusion: A Historic Transition?
The crypto betting market continues to react to every development surrounding the Vatican. As users place high-stakes bets on Polymarket, analysts see it as more than gambling — it reflects how blockchain-based forecasting tools are shaping real-time reactions to world events.
If the Polymarket new pope 2025 prediction proves accurate, the election of a new pope could mark one of the most significant transitions in the Catholic Church in recent history.
