Coinbase, the largest U.S. crypto exchange, has flagged a potential bear market for cryptocurrencies, citing troubling technical signals. Its latest report highlights a shift in trends for Bitcoin and other digital assets, urging investors to tread carefully over the next four to six weeks.
Bitcoin and the COIN50 index, tracking the top 50 tokens excluding BTC, have dipped below their 200-day moving averages (MA). Coinbase analysts see this as a hallmark of a bear cycle, with Bitcoin’s downturn starting in late March and the broader market’s in February. The S&P 500 mirrors this, suggesting wider market weakness.
The report notes a 41% drop in crypto market cap (ex-BTC) from $1.6 trillion in December 2024 to $950 billion by mid-April. Altcoins, spanning DeFi and meme coins, face heavier pressure, while Bitcoin lost under 20%. Venture capital funding also lags 50–60% below 2021–2022 peaks, curbing new inflows.
A “death cross” pattern—where the 50-day MA crosses below the 200-day MA—has emerged. Ethereum showed it in February, Bitcoin in April, and the S&P 500 soon after. This often signals a trend reversal, though interpretations vary. Bitwise’s Matt Hougan argues Bitcoin could outperform stocks in a global correction, a shift from past cycles.
Other analysts echo concerns. CryptoQuant’s Ki Young Ju warned in March of bearish network metrics, predicting a 6–12-month slump without fresh demand. Glassnode reported weak Bitcoin accumulation since January. Yet, Coinbase remains hopeful, eyeing a market bottom in mid-to-late Q2 2025, setting up a stronger Q3.
