The debate of Bitcoin vs gold intensifies as JPMorgan analysts predict that Bitcoin could outperform gold in the second half of 2025. With growing institutional crypto adoption, unique market catalysts, and increasing recognition from policymakers, Bitcoin’s ascent toward becoming the premier store of value is gaining momentum.
Bitcoin vs Gold: Performance in 2025 So Far
According to JPMorgan’s recent report cited by Decrypt, Bitcoin vs gold has become a zero-sum game in 2025. Since January, gold has surged over 22%, outperforming U.S. stock indices like the S&P 500 and NASDAQ100, which posted gains under 2%. In contrast, Bitcoin has climbed only 11%, reaching $104,100 as of May 16.
However, the dynamic appears to be shifting. From mid-February to mid-April, gold gained value at Bitcoin’s expense. But over the last three weeks, Bitcoin vs gold reversed, with BTC gaining approximately 19% while gold declined 8.5% from its peak of $3,500 per ounce.
JPMorgan analysts emphasize that this momentum could continue, with Bitcoin poised to surpass gold in returns during the latter half of the year.
What Makes Bitcoin More Promising?
Bitcoin’s rarity is often compared to gold. With a capped supply of 21 million BTC, and halvings every four years, Bitcoin vs gold becomes a contest of digital scarcity versus physical.
Institutional crypto adoption also plays a significant role. Companies like Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) and Japan’s Metaplanet are aggressively acquiring Bitcoin for reserves. As of May, Strategy held over 568,000 BTC (around 2.6% of the total supply), purchased at an average price of $69,287.
Moreover, some U.S. states are joining the trend. New Hampshire, for example, now allows up to 5% of its state reserve to be held in Bitcoin and gold. President Trump’s March 6 executive order to establish a national Bitcoin reserve further legitimizes BTC as a strategic asset.
Institutional Crypto Adoption Accelerates
A surge in institutional crypto adoption also supports Bitcoin’s outlook. In recent weeks:
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Coinbase acquired Deribit, the leading crypto options platform.
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Kraken purchased NinjaTrader for retail crypto futures trading.
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Gemini received a pan-European license for crypto derivatives.
These moves suggest a maturing crypto derivatives market, providing deeper liquidity and enabling more sophisticated institutional strategies. Bitcoin vs gold increasingly favors the former in terms of flexibility and future positioning.
Bitcoin’s Risks and Long-Term Outlook
Despite bullish sentiment, Bitcoin is not without risks. Strategy’s BTC accumulation is financed via convertible bonds, which benefit from BTC price increases but expose the firm to risks during prolonged market downturns.
Still, analysts argue that broader institutional crypto adoption could serve as a stabilizing force. The “digital gold” narrative is gaining traction even among central bankers. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently referred to Bitcoin as a “competitor to gold,” not the dollar.
Bitcoin vs gold is no longer just a theoretical discussion. It is rapidly becoming a competition for investor capital and macroeconomic relevance.
