Bitcoin short term holders are nearing a potential tipping point for profit taking, according to on-chain data from analyst Axel Adler Jr. As of late May 2025, the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) for holders who have held Bitcoin for one to three months stands at around 27% — a level that signals increased sensitivity to market shifts.
If the trend continues, Bitcoin short term holders could soon trigger a sell-off, potentially impacting BTC’s mid-June price dynamics.
NUPL Predicts Bitcoin Profit Taking by Mid-June
Adler estimates that at the current daily growth rate of 0.818 percentage points, the short-term NUPL could hit 40% by June 11, 2025. Historically, this level has triggered Bitcoin profit taking, leading to increased Bitcoin selling pressure across the market.
“Short term holders tend to take profits aggressively around the 40% mark,” said Adler. “This behavior has historically led to temporary corrections in Bitcoin’s price.”
If no major shocks such as regulations, geopolitical instability, or influencer activity disturb the market, Adler’s linear model suggests BTC could reach around $162,000 by that date.
Historical Patterns Support the Forecast
Looking at previous years, spikes in short term NUPL to levels like 47%, 44%, 66%, and 57% have often resulted in notable corrections. These cases offer a blueprint for how the market might behave when Bitcoin short term holders begin to lock in profits.
Traders are closely monitoring the NUPL curve to anticipate Bitcoin selling pressure and adjust their strategies as mid-June approaches.
