Bitcoin price prediction has taken center stage again, as Arthur Hayes, former CEO of BitMEX, suggests the cryptocurrency could climb above $200,000. In his latest essay titled “Ski Cut,” Hayes links the recent U.S. fiscal policy changes directly to this potential surge.
U.S. Fiscal Policy Drives Bitcoin Price Prediction
Hayes points to key steps taken by the U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve as core drivers. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has shifted toward issuing more short-term bills instead of long-term bonds. This move aims to release liquidity from the Federal Reserve’s reverse repo system into the broader financial markets.
Though not officially called quantitative easing, these policies act similarly by injecting capital. In addition, the Federal Reserve has slowed its quantitative tightening strategy. These developments together improve market liquidity — a key ingredient in any bullish Bitcoin price prediction.
Liquidity Trends Support Bitcoin’s Growth
Hayes compares today’s situation to Q3 2022, when Bitcoin dropped below $16,000. Recently, fears of a slide from $74,500 to $60,000 mirrored that sentiment. Yet, Hayes believes these fears ignore the broader impact of liquidity-focused government strategies.
Increased liquidity, coupled with continued volatility in traditional markets, may further support Bitcoin’s upward movement. Hayes suggests Bitcoin is gradually becoming a strategic hedge — a true digital gold asset.
Bitcoin Price Prediction in the Context of Safe Havens
Hayes argues that Bitcoin might decouple from tech stocks and instead mirror the movement of gold. This shift marks an evolution in Bitcoin’s macroeconomic role. During geopolitical instability, traditional hedges like gold — and now Bitcoin — become increasingly attractive.
Because of this outlook, Hayes’ firm Maelstrom bought more Bitcoin during the drop from $110,000 to $74,500. He remains firm in his belief that Bitcoin price prediction over $200,000 is not only plausible, but likely.
