A dramatic Bitcoin crash could be coming, according to Bloomberg’s senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone. Despite Bitcoin currently trading above $106,000, McGlone predicts a drop to $40,000 amid deflation risks and a looming recession. He warns that risky assets like Bitcoin may suffer heavily if the U.S. economy contracts and investors shift toward traditional safe havens like gold.
Bitcoin Crash Driven by Macroeconomic Risks
The Bitcoin crash prediction is tied to broader economic cycles. McGlone believes we are moving from an inflationary phase into a deflationary one. This transition often puts pressure on speculative markets. In May, Bitcoin reached a peak ratio compared to gold, which McGlone sees as a warning sign. If U.S. stock markets decline, particularly the S&P 500 falling to 4000, Bitcoin may no longer attract risk-averse investors.
Mike McGlone Compares Bitcoin to Gold
McGlone stated, “Bitcoin $40,000, gold $4000 — deflation vs. inflation, recession.” He argues that in a recessionary environment, gold prices could rise significantly. If gold hits $4000 per ounce and the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio falls to 10, Bitcoin’s price could be forced down to around $40,000. This would mark a more than 60% drop from its current level — a major Bitcoin crash by any measure.
How Recession Could Trigger a Bitcoin Crash
Markets largely ignored recession signals in 2023. But McGlone believes the downturn was merely delayed. If deflation kicks in, high-risk digital assets could lose their appeal. Investors might retreat to gold and other traditional safe assets. This shift in sentiment is at the heart of McGlone’s Bitcoin crash forecast.
Bitcoin vs. Gold in 2025
As economic uncertainty rises, the debate of Bitcoin vs gold is intensifying. Gold has a long history as a recession hedge. Bitcoin, by contrast, remains volatile. If McGlone’s view plays out, the contrast between these two assets will become even sharper in 2025.
Conclusion: Is a Bitcoin Crash Inevitable?
Mike McGlone’s Bitcoin crash forecast should not be ignored. He sees strong macroeconomic reasons for a major correction. With inflation fading and recession risks rising, Bitcoin might face a dramatic drop while gold shines again. Whether or not this scenario unfolds, investors should be prepared for heightened volatility and shifting market sentiment in 2025.
